Abstract
This study forecasts the life‐cycle treatment effects on health of a high‐quality early childhood program. Our predictions combine microsimulation using nonexperimental data with experimental data from a midlife long‐term follow‐up. The follow‐up incorporated a full epidemiological exam. The program mainly benefits males and significantly reduces the prevalence of heart disease, stroke, cancer, and mortality across the life‐cycle. For men, we estimate an average reduction of 3.8 disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs). The reduction in DALYs is relatively small for women. The gain in quality‐adjusted life years is almost enough to offset all of the costs associated with program implementation for males and half of program costs for women.
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