Healthcare consulting group Sg2, a Vizient company, released its “2025 Impact of Change Forecast” on June 23, laying out several growth trends that will impact ASCs over the next 10 years.
Here are 10 takeaways from the report:
1. The report projects total adult ASC volume to grow 21% over the next decade.
2. Gastroenterology, ophthalmology, orthopedics and spine were projected to see the most significant growth in this time frame.
3. The report highlights a projected 18% growth in adult outpatient volumes and a 5% increase in adult inpatient discharges over the next decade.
4. As more procedures are approved for the ASC setting, outpatient volumes overall are expected to reach 6.03 billion by 2035. Annual inpatient discharges are expected to reach 31.9 million by the end of the decade, with those ages 65 and older accounting for more than half of these discharges.
5. Inpatient days for patients are expected to rise by 10% over the next decade, a trend that could exacerbate existing capacity issues at hospitals and health systems.
7. Pediatric outpatient growth volume is expected to grow 8% over the next 10 years to 881.8 million.
7. Cancer outpatient volumes are expected to grow 18% to 222 million over the decade, while inpatient volumes remain flat.
8. Diabetes care is forecasted to see major shifts, driven largely by the consistent use of GLP-1s. Type 2 diabetes inpatient discharge growth will slow to 8%, or 693,000 discharges, versus a population-based forecast of 12% growth.
9. Post-acute care is expected to grow by 31% to 704 million in patient volume by 2025, “representing a significant opportunity to extend services to older and medically complex populations in a lower-cost setting,” according to the report.
10. Bill Prentice, CEO of the Ambulatory Surgery Center Association, said in a June 26 ASCA post covering the report that ASCs will need support to be able to meet the projected patient volume increases over the next decade.
“If these projections hold, both CMS and commercial payers must ensure that surgery centers remain a viable alternative to provide this care,” he said. “Fair reimbursement and reduced regulatory burdens are essential.”
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