Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials

Abstract Comparing median outcomes to gauge treatment effectiveness is widespread practice in clinical and other investigations. While common, such difference‐in‐median characterizations of effectiveness are but one way to summarize how outcome distributions compare. This paper explores properties of median treatment effects (TEs) as indicators of treatment effectiveness. The paper's main focus is on decisionmaking based on median TEs and it proceeds by considering two paths a decisionmaker might follow. Along one, decisions are based on point‐identified differences in medians alongside partially identified median differences; along the other decisions are based on point‐identifi...

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