Abstract
This study uses individual level data from a 13-year, nationally representative rotating panel survey of Kyrgyzstan to estimate the effects of fluctuations in predicted income on health and nutrition outcomes from early childhood to adulthood. We consider impacts on both undernutrition and overnutrition side-by-side, and carefully consider the mechanisms at work. We address the endogeneity of income following Bartik (1991): We construct a measure of predicted income, obtained using the household’s initial period share of income from different sources and aggregate national growth rates over time in each source. We find that young children (under age 5) exposed to reductions in predicted income experienced reductions in important measures of health and nutrition: weight, weight-for-age Z-scores, and weight-for-height Z-scores. We further identify reductions in both weight and height among older children (aged 5–18). Declines in child health and nutrition are most pronounced among households most dependent on agriculture and those living in rural areas. Reduced consumption of healthy foods and reduced parental time spent with children may help explain the results. A channel possibly offsetting negative impacts is increased use of contraceptives. At the same time, older children and adults experienced decreases in body mass index and—for adults—decreases in the incidence of overweight and obesity, suggesting selective health benefits for some groups.
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